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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Kansas City Chiefs 38

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 6-C.Sturgis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +3.42 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model