Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to LAC 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 89-J.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 6. 89-J.Jones to LAC 6 for no gain (13-D.Thomas). FUMBLES (13-D.Thomas), RECOVERED by KC-41-J.Winchester at LAC 2.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.52 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model