Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 79

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 8-D.Kaser punts 63 yards to KC 16, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 20 for 4 yards. PENALTY on KC-19-M.Kemp, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.40 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model