Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(:54) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to NYG 19, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-K.Clay MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Payne at NYG 21. 52-D.Payne to NYG 21 for no gain (15-K.Clay).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.61 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -1.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model