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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 36

New York Giants 15 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.Shepard (25-D.Hayden).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP