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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to NYG 14, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-K.Clay pushed ob at NYG 19 for 5 yards (81-N.Paul).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.91 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 20, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model