Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 69

New York Giants 15 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

(7:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to JAX 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 25 for 10 yards (72-K.Wynn).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model