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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to NYG 27, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-K.Clay to NYG 26 for -1 yards (17-D.Chark).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model