Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 59

New York Giants 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

(13:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model