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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 9-L.Cooke punts 29 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.11 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP