Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Giants 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to JAX 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 16 for -4 yards (35-C.Riley). PENALTY on JAX-53-B.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at JAX 16. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model