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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 20 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model