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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 3

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.59 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.84 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP