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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 21

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.68 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model