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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.78 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP