Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to IND 25, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN. PENALTY on CIN-40-B.Wilson, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at IND 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.16 EP
75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model