4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 83

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 33 for -1 yards (44-Z.Franklin, 28-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 41, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model