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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 80-C.Rogers to IND 22 for no gain (29-T.McRae).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP