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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to CHI 15, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.56 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP