Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 7

(4:25) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to CHI 29, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 32 for 3 yards (35-J.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.19 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model