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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 24 – Chicago Bears 23

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Adams.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.30 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP