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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 14

Chicago Bears 20 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 1-C.Parkey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.30 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model