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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model