4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 15

Chicago Bears 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 1-C.Parkey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.46 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model