Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 6-J.Scott punts 39 yards to CHI 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-15-J.Bellamy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.16 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model