Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 74

Chicago Bears 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

(1:56) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to GB 25, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.60 EP
56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model