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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 81

Chicago Bears 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 63 yards to GB 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-R.Cobb to GB 35 for 17 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model