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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to BAL 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BAL 25 for -1 yards (42-P.DiMarco).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.81 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model