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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 3 – Baltimore Ravens 47

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 84-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.29 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model