Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 3 – Baltimore Ravens 40

(12:05) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to BAL 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BAL 11 for no gain (26-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.15 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model