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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 40 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(14:47) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-M.Cox. 45-M.Murphy to BUF 18 for 9 yards (26-M.Canady).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.38 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model