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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 17

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 40

What Actually Happened

(2:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on BAL-41-A.Levine, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 19% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model