Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 26

(13:57) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 27, and recovers at BUF 14. 9-C.Bojorquez to BUF 14 for no gain (54-T.Bowser).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP