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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to BAL 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at BAL 15.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model