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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(8:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.23 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model