Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 79

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 17

(12:09) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to BAL 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BAL 30 for 1 yard (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model