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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to MIN 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels. PENALTY on PHI-18-S.Gibson, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.92 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model