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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 38

What Actually Happened

(12:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs [91-F.Cox].

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.08 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model