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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(:38) 4-R.Quigley punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.07 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model