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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to MIN 15, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.20 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model