4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to PHI 20, Center-44-J.Overbaugh. 38-K.Barner to PHI 30 for 10 yards (41-A.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP