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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to JAX 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP