Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – New England Patriots 17

(6:30) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to NE 19, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.37 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model