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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 13

New England Patriots 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 24th consecutive postseason game with a point, ties Akers for 2nd all-time (Vinatieri 30). NE 3-Gostkowski 32nd career postseason FG, tied for 3rd all-time (Gary Anderson).

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model