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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.82 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model