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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 92

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 3-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to NE 41, Center-49-C.Holba. 80-D.Amendola to NE 46 for 5 yards (30-C.Grant, 55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 92, worth -5.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 50, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model