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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 47

New England Patriots 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.14 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP