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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 30

New England Patriots 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 80-D.Amendola ran ob at JAX 10 for 20 yards.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.33 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model