Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 71

New England Patriots 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

(5:32) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to JAX 25, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.16 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model