Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(5:15) 8-D.Jones punts 29 yards to ATL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.54 EP
74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.72 EP

KICK -0.53 EP

40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
60% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model